Beggar in India is a millionaire in Bangladesh

For Mohammed Jakir, an illegal immigrant from Bangladesh, begging may have begun as a compulsion but through his ingenuity he turned it into a career option. The 42-year-old amputee, who begged in Indian cities for more than two decades, is today known to be a rich man in Bangladesh.

Indian intelligence sleuths, who nabbed Jakir after learning about his all-too-frequent visits to Bangladesh, claim that his wealth in that country could be around Rs 75 lakh!

Jakir crossed over to India illegally in 1986 at the Benapura Indo-Bangladesh border. Without hands to work with, he realised begging was his only option and he did so for years on streets near Gateway of India, Mumbai. The money he made not only supported his family in Mumbai but also helped him save.

"I earned a lot in Mumbai. Indians have sympathy for the handicapped. One man even donated Rs 1,100 to me," revealed Jakir during interrogation by the cops in Ajmer, who arrested him on Saturday night. It’s learnt that Jakir, son of Mohammed Ali, is from Mohammedpura district, Bangladesh.

"My earning was so good that I could marry Naseema, a teenage girl, and buy a house at Murtinagar and raise a family with her," he says. They had five children, four of them girls.

Naseema eventually left for Delhi with her kids. "Somehow, the hearts of people changed; their sympathy faded. Two years ago, I left Mumbai and arrived at Ajmer for ’Urs’. It proved to be the right decision.

Govt faces tight confidence vote

India’s parliament begins debate on a vote of confidence in the Congress-led government on Monday after its communist allies ended their crucial support in protest at a civilian nuclear deal with the United States.

The vote, due on Tuesday, is so close that several MPs who are ill may be flown or wheeled in from hospital, and others have been granted temporary release from jail.

If Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government falls, there will be early elections, possibly by year-end. This would almost certainly lead to the cancellation of the nuclear deal and halt all economic reforms, from insurance and banking to pensions.

The vote essentially pits the Congress Party-led government against the communists and a coalition led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

A host of smaller regional and caste-based parties hold the balance. It is unclear which way they will vote and a spate of horse trading in recent days even included the re-naming of an airport to honour the father of one wavering MP.

A government defeat would be a boost for the BJP, which has won a string of state elections this year amid rising inflation and criticism that millions of poor Indians were not benefiting from the booming economy.

The prime minister will kick off the confidence motion with an opening statement, followed by a parliamentary debate and a final electronic vote, expected on Tuesday evening.

While numbers are in flux, some analysts say the government is about 10 votes short of a 272 majority in the 543-member house.

"Nobody is sure, it’s too difficult to predict," said Sudha Pai, professor of politics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University. "It’s perhaps the tightest parliamentary vote we have seen."

In 1999, a BJP-led government lost a confidence vote by a margin of just one.

SHADY DEALS

Weak party discipline, under-the-table deals and accidents like MPs falling ill make the result almost impossible to predict.

"The problem is that money changes hands, dirty deals are struck and MPs do a volte-face nonchalantly," said political commentator Amulya Ganguli. "It’s hard to predict when the race is so tight."

A week ago the government was confident of securing a majority with the support of the regional Samajwadi Party (SP), which replaced the communists as its parliamentary support after the left walked out, saying the nuclear pact was bad for India.

Since then there have been signs of a rebellion in the ranks of the SP, including the defection to an opposition group of senior party member Shahid Siddiqui.

Two small political groups -- the JD(S) and RLD with six MPs in all -- also decided to vote against the government.

Other MPs have vacillated over voting for a government already battling rising inflation, which is hitting millions of poor voters, ahead of general elections due by next May.

Analysts say the government is hoping for some abstentions in the opposition camp, and the government says it is confident of winning the vote. "We have the numbers. Our flock is together," said Congress spokesman Veerappa Moily.

Is this a good time to invest?

The mood is sombre. Dark clouds have gathered on the horizon. The future looks bleak. No, this is not a new novel, just your typical market analyst commentary. The experts are concurring these days that the scenario is one of gloom and doom. In fact, there is wide choice of options to worry about, so pick the one you want to start with - inflation , fiscal deficit, oil prices, elections, industrial growth, corporate earnings, and many more.

All the homilies - buy when the market dips, buy good companies, buy value, buy growth - have disappeared from analyst verbiage . Warren Buffett is forgotten . Is this ’gloom and doom’ scenario for real?

The recent performances of all portfolios seem to reinforce this outlook. Stock prices have been battered in recent weeks, reflecting this new perception of reality. Some of the largest companies have been battered by the recent fall

Even mutual funds have not been spared, with most funds falling faster than the indices. Analysts have been revising Sensex targets to 12,500 or even as low as 10,500. What’s an investor to do? Run for cover, or brave the tide? Buying in this market would be a brave decision indeed. Or perhaps it would be foolish ?

Let us try to make sense of the current worries. Are they as overwhelming as feared, or will they just be footnotes on the pages of history within a year or two?

Most of the current worries are short-term in nature. Worries about a global slowdown have already started to weigh on commodity prices. And as infrastructure bottlenecks are resolved and additional supplies flow into the market, commodity prices look set to head downwards . Most commodity stocks have already corrected sharply from their respective peaks.

Countries dependent on commodities have also seen a sharp drop in their markets over the last two months, due to worries about global growth rates. Brazil’s Bovespa is down 20 percent and Australia’s All Ordinaries down 15 percent in just two months. Any cooling off of commodity prices will put India back on the growth track. This time around, this is likely to be one of the few markets offering growth opportunities as credit-induced growth seizes up in most other economies. The domestic growth potential and attractive valuations should put India back on the buy list over the next few months.

But isn’t that a long time? The analysts are predicting the worst, and it could happen immediately, they say. What should you do?

Investors should forget about analysts’ commentary, projections and targets. Their accuracy leaves much to be desired. Don’t forget, these were the same people foretelling index targets of 20,000 to 25,000 just six months ago. There are worries galore, of course. But they only explain why the Sensex is at 13,000, and not at 23,000. They tell us very little about where the markets will be next year.

So what advice should investors follow?

Don’t try to outguess the market. It has always been futile to try and guess market movements. And it’s impossible to pick the bottom or the top. Then, how does one invest? Or, (a common question nowadays), should one invest at all? Equity remains the best asset for long-term capital growth. Despite current worries , returns from the stock market will be linked to longterm growth in corporate profits, which will in turn depend on the growth and prospects of the economy.

If you believe that it will do well over the long term, then the corporate sector will follow suit and so will the stock prices. Though indices have fallen by 40 percent from the peak, the long-term prospects of the economy and the corporate sector are unlikely to have deteriorated to that extent. The demographic profile and infrastructure investment that analysts were raving about just six months ago are still in place. This decline thus gives long-term investors an excellent entry point.

Perhaps, like many investors, you are asking: should I buy now? If so, how much?

Do not decide on the quantum of investments based on current market sentiments. Draw up an asset allocation that is appropriate for your age and risk profile. Decide your equity investments based on your asset allocation model, not on levels of the Sensex or targets bandied about by your friends or analysts. That’s the smart way to invest. It will help you filter out the ’noise’ on TV, and focus your investments on your longterm goals.

Bookies offer Rs 50 cr to MPs, Sena worried

Despite brave talk by the Shiv Sena leadership that all its 12 MPs will vote against the UPA government on July 22, there’s considerable nervousness within the party.It’s learnt that at least three of its MPs have been approached not only by the Congress and NCP, but also by bookies.

It appears that the bookies led by Hitesh Samrat and Ajay Maheshwari — they consider UPA government as the odds-on favourite to survive the trust vote — have developed huge stakes in the continuance of the UPA government and are going all out to try and fix the outcome of the trust vote.

"The going rate for an MP has shot up to a mind-boggling Rs 50 crore with 50% being the down payment," said a senior Maharashtra intelligence official on Sunday. More attention is being paid to those MPs who have lost their constituencies in the delimitation exercise. "The reasoning is that since these MPs have no constituency to fight from, they’ll be more vulnerable to allurements," a Sena leader admitted.

After last night’s meeting at Shiv Sena boss Balasaheb Thackeray’s residence, Matoshri, leader of Sena’s parliamentary group Anant Gite insisted that the party was intact and that all the 12 MPs would vote against the UPA. But now the party is taking extra precautions on "vulnerable" MPs. Even if one MP cross votes or abstains, it will be a huge loss of face for Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray. That’s why his detractors outside the party are working overtime to woo Sena MPs.

It’s learnt that two leading bookies are camping in an upscale New Delhi hotel and contacting their potential targets. The Congress and NCP recognize that they stand to lose heavily if the UPA government falls and early elections are held.

"Anti-incumbency is so strong in Maharashtra that it will be cakewalk for the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance if elections are held now," a senior Congress minister admitted.

"The consequences of a defeat on July 22 go beyond Lok Sabha elections. They will impact the assembly polls next," he added.

Meanwhile, political parties are hiring private detectives to keep a tab on their MPs. K Krishnan, chairman of Venus Detectives, told TOI: "We’ve been hired by some parties to keep a watch on their MPs and major players. We are not interested in politics and are only executing a professional job of shadowing those whose names have been given to us by politicians."

Zimbabwe to introduce 100 bln dollar bank note

Zimbabwe’s central bank will introduce new higher-value 100 billion Zimbabwe dollar notes on Monday as part of a desperate fight against spiralling hyperinflation, the bank said.

Zimbabweans are suffering chronic shortages of meat, maize, fuel and other basic commodities due to the collapse of the once prosperous economy, which critics blame on President Robert Mugabe’s policies, including his violent seizure of white-owned farms.

Central bank Governor Gideon Gono announced on Wednesday that inflation had surpassed 2.2 million percent, though some economists put it much higher.

In a notice in the official Herald newspaper on Saturday, Gono said the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe would introduce 100 billion dollar special agro-cheques (notes), to help consumers who currently need to carry large wads of cash even for simple transactions.

"This new $100 billion special agro-cheque will go into circulation on Monday," the notice said.

The central bank has been printing higher denomination banknotes to keep pace with soaring prices. The most valuable bank note currently in circulation is worth Z$50 billion.

Gono said he was also considering raising the amount of cash people could withdraw daily from their bank accounts. The central bank has imposed a withdrawal limit of Z$100 billion, but this is only enough for two trips on an urban commuter bus or two loaves of bread -- if one can find it.

The Zimbabwe dollar, which had been officially pegged at 30,000 to the U.S. dollar before exchange rules were relaxed recently, now trades at about 800 million to the greenback.

Besides struggling with shortages of basic goods and services, Zimbabweans also spend long hours in bank queues trying to withdraw their money.

The central bank says the limits on cash withdrawals are designed to curtail a thriving black market in foreign exchange and basic commodities.

The worsening economy could add to pressure on the ruling ZANU-PF party to make concessions to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which has refused to recognise Mugabe’s overwhelming victory in a June 27 presidential run-off election.

MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the first round vote on March 29 but failed to get the absolute majority needed to avoid a second ballot. Tsvangirai pulled out of that poll, citing violence by pro-Mugabe militia.

Two weeks ago a German firm, Giesecke and Devrient, stopped deliveries of banknote paper to Zimbabwe following pressure from the German government amid international criticism of Mugabe’s widely condemned re-election. Gono said Zimbabwe had made alternative arrangements.

Market to remain shaky

Even as the Congress-led UPA government faces a trust vote on Tuesday, the two-day rally in the stock market appears to suggest that investors are confident about the government’s survival.

But the sharp gains in the past couple of sessions have come amid cautious optimism, which was evident many times in the past too, when ruling parties were in trouble.

A look at the Sensex’s behaviour ahead of a no-confidence motion in Parliament that different governments faced since 1990 shows that the market did not witness any clear trend (sustained downward or upward movement), as investors mostly preferred to remain on the sidelines till political problems were resolved.

Notwithstanding the 1000-point rally in the Sensex in the past couple of sessions, there is uncertainty if the government will be able to survive the trust vote, say brokers. Besides next week’s political developments, the market will also be influenced by many other factors like crude oil prices, inflation and first quarter numbers, they say.

"Friday’s upsurge was mostly because of a fall in oil prices. There is also a feeling that the government will survive and so the nuclear deal will go through," said KR Choksey Shares and Securities chairman Kisan Choksey. If oil prices soften further, it would help ease inflationary pressures, as India is a major importer of crude oil, says Mr Choksey.

n April 1999, the then BJP-led coalition government was in trouble as the AIADMK party withdrew its support to the government. The Sensex ended weak on most trading days during the month. It, however, gained sharply by 216 points on April 16, a day before vote of confidence. The Sensex slipped 246 points after the BJP lost the no-confidence motion by a single vote on April 17.

On April 11, 1997, the then prime minister HD Deve Gowda lost the confidence vote after the Congress withdrew support to the United Front government. The market gained on most trading days during the month, before ending with a gain of 35 points, or 1%, at 3,633.7 on the day of the trust vote.

Among other notable occasions of vote of confidence, Atal Bihari Vajpayee resigned before the confidence motion was put to vote on May 28, 1996. The BJP then could not prove the majority. The market remained week ahead of the vote of confidence. On November 7, 1990, VP Singh lost the vote of confidence after the BJP withdrew its support to the government. The Sensex recorded some gains ahead of the event, before ending 49 points up, or 3.7%, at 1,381 on the day of the vote.

On Friday, the Sensex climbed 524 points, or 4%, to end at 13,635 while Nifty jumped 145 points, or 3.7%, to close at 4,092, on the back of a sharp fall in oil prices. "Crude is weak below $135 and once it breaches $129 levels the price could fall towards $121 levels. If the government survives the market may move up towards 4200 and 4600 in a short span of time" said Alex Mathew, research head of Geojit Financial Services.

Your sex dreams revealed!

Have you ever wondered what that sexy dream you had last night meant? Read on for tips on how to decode the five most common intimate scenarios... Passionate dreams about that long ago flame, that colleague you have a crush on or even a famous celebrity can make you feel dazed and confused. But the most common emotion that one experiences is usually guilt.
Experts say that these dreams should not be taken as literal expressions of lust. In fact it is believed that interpreting and understanding one’s dreams can help unearth one’s fears or desires.

Dreams are often a way to let you know what you need but are not getting during your waking hours. By making the effort to decode them you could achieve a far more satisfying love life. Here are five common scenarios:
The Ex
It can be unnerving, to say the least, to dream about your ex lover. However it does not mean you are not normal. You can relax as it is just your mind taking a mental break. In fact this ex could just symbolise anything that you associate with him/her. For instance if it is someone you had a crush on in college, he/she could symbolise the freedom you had at that point in your life. If you dream of an ex who was sweet and caring, it could be that you crave security while a wild ex could represent spontaneity. So enjoy the flashback as it is perfectly safe unless of course you go too far. If you have recurring obsessive dreams about this one person, you might have a reason to be concerned.

The celebrity crush
To dream of a sexy encounter with a celebrity is not uncommon, especially among women. It could just indicate the desire to have a wish fulfilled. For instance dreaming of a romantic musician could indicate that you are waiting for that kind of person to come into your life or that you desire more romance in your existing relationship. It could also mean that you might want to be a part of the glamorous world your crush represents.

The person you hate
Imagine dreaming about that irritating co-worker who never fails to annoy you at work. This kind of dream can definitely cause a lot of confusion - a passionate dream involving someone you can’t stand normally. But don’t be shocked - it could mean that no matter how horrid this person is, he/she could have certain qualities that you might want to emulate. Similarly dreams about relatives could indicate a desire for stronger family ties.

The opposite sex
Don’t panic if you have a dream about having a sexual encounter with someone of the same sex. It does not mean that you have suddenly switched your sexuality. What it could mean is the desire for more understanding in your relationship. You probably need your partner to be more sensitive and caring towards you.

The stranger
Making love with a mysterious stranger could represent the need for more mystery and spice in your life. This would be particularly relevant if you and your partner have let your sex life lag recently. Dreaming about a threesome too could signal a desire to break out of a boring romantic routine and get the spark right back in to your relationship.