Where’s the windfall profit for a tax?

A windfall profit tax on oil companies now would be illogical and an unwise economic measure. The rationale for such a tax is suspect and can be challenged in the Courts. Those arguing in favour should look at the experience of other countries that have imposed such a tax , specifically the US, where it did more harm than good to the economy, says Raghuvir Srinivasan.

The nuclear fission in national politics is letting loose generous doses of radiation on a daily basis. One such lethal dose came last week from the Samajwadi Party’s Mr Amar Singh who seems to be a loyal friend indeed for his most important friend in need. In what should rank as one of the most unsubtle episodes of political bargaining ever seen in this country, Mr Singh wants a windfall profit tax imposed on oil companies and a fee to be charged from telecom comp anies using extra spectrum as a quid pro quo for voting with the government in Parliament.

Such talk can be good politics but is it good economics? Do those now propounding a windfall profit tax know what exactly such a tax is and its history?

The answer to both questions is a resounding no. A windfall profit tax on oil companies now would be illogical and an unwise economic measure; those arguing in favour should look at the experience of other countries that have imposed such a tax in the past, specifically the US, where it did more harm than good to their economy.
What is a windfall profit?

According to Wikipedia, the term “windfall profit” was first used in the colonial era. Subjects were prohibited from using lumber that was more than a foot in width except where due to an act of God, such as a storm, trees fell down in their own property. In such a case, they could use the wood or sell it. Needless to say, there were several such instances of acts of God and subjects reaped windfall profits by selling such wood. So, a windfall profit presupposes an act of God. It is profit earned through other than the ordinary course of business. Does this definition fit our oil companies? It appears not.
Unflattering history

The US experimented with a windfall profit tax on oil companies in the 1980s and the experience was anything but worthwhile. President Jimmy Carter imposed such a tax in April 1980 after dismantling price controls on the oil industry. The freeing of controls caused oil prices to rise from $14 to $24 a barrel raising demands from lawmakers for a tax on the windfall earnings of oil companies. Unlike what its name signifies, the windfall profit tax imposed by the Carter administration was actually an excise tax in that it was calculated on the difference between the market price of oil and a base price set by the administration. Higher the market price, higher was the tax burden.

However, the tax failed to serve its purpose and, worse, worked against the interests of the government. It failed to generate the projected revenues, increased the reliance of the US on oil imports and turned tax administration into a nightmare for the Internal Revenue Service.

According to a study by the US Congressional Research Service called The Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax of the 1980s: Implications for Current Energy Policy by Salvatore Lazzari, a specialist in public finance, released in March 2006, the tax generated just $80 billion in revenue between 1980 and 1988 compared to a projection of $383 billion. The net revenue was even lower at $38 billion as the tax could be set off against income tax liability.

Mr Lazzari’s study estimates that the tax reduced domestic oil production from anywhere between 1.2 and 8 per cent and dependence on imported oil grew from 3 to 13 per cent. The tax was finally repealed by the Reagan administration in 1988 as it failed to generate projected revenues, increased dependence on imported oil and turned into an administrative burden for the Internal Revenue Service.

Where’s the windfall profit?

Now, it is doubtful if those calling for a windfall profit tax in India are aware of the unpleasant experience that the US had with the tax. It is even more doubtful if they have studied the financial statements of the domestic oil companies — Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum. If they did, they would not be demanding such a tax now.

The financial statements reveal how these companies are reeling under the burden of subsidy; they show how these once cash-rich companies are now borrowing heavily to finance their working capital and are heading for losses this fiscal. So, where are the “windfall profits” to be taxed?

The only oil company that stands to gain from the rising global crude oil prices is ONGC. But ONGC is already suffering a windfall profit tax though not by name. Just consider this. The company contributed Rs 22,000 crore as its share of the subsidy burden in 2007-08 (through discounts to the downstream refining companies). This reduced its turnover to Rs 59,848 crore in 2007-08, 27 per cent lower than what it ought to have been.

The impact was bigger on the post-tax earnings. ONGC parted with almost half its profits to fill the subsidy hole. Its post-tax earnings at Rs 16,701 crore were lower by Rs 13,241 crore thanks to the subsidy burden. Why was ONGC asked to bear such a large share of the burden? It was because it stood to gain the most from the rise in global oil prices. If this subsidy-sharing is not a form of windfall profit tax, what is it? Remember, ONGC pays a 33 per cent corporate tax in addition to this subsidy.

The downstream refining and marketing companies such as Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum also share about 10 per cent of the subsidy burden of the government. It is really illogical to think of a windfall profit tax on them when they are already reeling from the subsidy burden and heading for losses.

So, if it is not ONGC and the downstream refining companies, who is the windfall profit tax aimed at then? Reliance Industries and Essar Oil are the only other oil companies in the net apart from Cairn India, which is anyway a marginal player in the present scenario. If at all Cairn were to earn a “windfall profit” it would be when its Rajasthan fields go on stream in 2009 while Essar Oil has yet to stabilise and become a profitable refining company.

That leaves us with Reliance Industries whose profits surged by 62 per cent in 2007-08. But, then again, it is debatable if this can be construed as a “windfall profit”. The company runs an efficient refining operation and has been intelligent in its crude oil sourcing. That its refinery can process heavy and sour crude that is priced at a discount to the premium Brent is also a factor in its better profitability. This is more a case of efficiency driving profits rather than an act of God.

So, what is all this talk of a windfall profit tax then? Such a tax is certainly not going to help bring down pump prices of petrol or diesel. What it will do though is cause immense damage to the already faltering oil companies and lead the government into complex litigation. The rationale for such a tax is completely suspect and can be challenged in the Courts. This is territory not traversed by the government before and could lead to needless complications in an election year.

The government would do well not to embroil itself in more trouble than what it already finds itself in.

Ambani spat highlights India's coalition politics

India’s feuding billionaire Ambani brothers, whose businesses make up about 5 percent of the Asian giant’s economic output, have taken political centrestage and underscored how a new government ally is already generating headlines.

The controversy highlights one problem of coalition politics in India, where political commentators say smaller parties with corporate or social interests can have a disproportionate sway.

After communist parties ended support for the government last week in protest against a nuclear deal with the United States, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh won backing of the regional Samajwadi Party (SP) to avoid losing a confidence vote and facing snap elections.

The party has close links to Anil Ambani, the head of Reliance Communications and one of the world’s richest men, who has been in a long dispute with his even richer and elder brother Mukesh, chairman of Reliance Industries.

The dispute led to the split of the Reliance empire in 2005 into two groups controlled by each of the brothers. Together they represent about a fifth of the Sensex share index and operate in sectors from petrochemicals to mobile networks.

So when Mukesh Ambani met the prime minister on Monday, it sparked headlines across India that he was trying to defend his business interests amid fears his brother now enjoyed greater access to the government thanks to his SP links.

The meeting followed SP General Secretary Amar Singh saying his party would push for a windfall tax on private oil refiners, a move that would directly hurt Mukesh’s plans to have the world’s biggest refinery complex in India.

"Corporate Games in PM’s Office" was the headline of the Mail Today on Tuesday.

"A dangerous precedent has been set with the Prime Minister being asked to personally intervene to mediate between the two Ambani brothers," the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which is hugely influential in parliament, said.

"The two largest political parties are weak and smaller parties can gain influence. The tail can wag the dog," Paranjoy Guha Thakurta, an author on coalition politics in India, said.

Reliance Industries and the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group had no comment on any of the reports. A source at the prime minister’s office said the meeting was business, not politics.

"DISGUSTING"

Shares in Reliance Industries lost nearly 6 percent in two days after the SP officially said it would back the government, with investors nervous about the windfall tax.

The Ambani dispute had already turned more bitter when Anil bid to merge Reliance Communications with South Africa’s MTN Group to create a telecoms giant. Mukesh objected, saying his permission was required for sales of family shares.

Then came the tidal change in politics, with Amar Singh and the SP as kingmaker effectively holding the balance of power.

Amar Singh last week told television Mukesh’s approach to the MTN deal was "disgusting" and called on the prime minister to sort out the conflict.

The politician’s stance has raised eyebrows. Any government move against exports of refined oil products, as Amar Singh wants, would hit Mukesh’s Reliance Petroleum, which is about to start test runs for a new export-oriented refinery.

Reliance Industries, which controls Reliance Petroleum, runs India’s biggest refinery at Jamnagar, adjacent to the new plant, and its refining complex will be the biggest in the world.

"It’s all looking like a bit of a farce now," said Harit Shah, an analyst at Angel Broking.

"It is a bit illogical to think that special benefits that were given years ago can suddenly be abolished or that taxes can suddenly be imposed because someone is demanding it."

"But what’s clear is that having the heads of two of the biggest conglomerates fight is a bad reflection of India as a good investment destination or a good place to do business in."

V.K. Sharma, head of research at Anagram Stock Broking, said the market was used to factoring in politics.

"It gives a very shoddy impression about India," he said. "That means politics still plays a role in doing business here."

13,000 may turn out lucky for gold and Sensex

The mood is sombre. Dark clouds have gathered on the horizon. The future looks bleak. No, this is not a new novel, just your typical market analyst commentary. The experts are concurring these days that the scenario is one of gloom and doom. In fact, there is wide choice of options to worry about, so pick the one you want to start with: inflation, fiscal deficit, oil prices, elections, industrial growth, corporate earnings, restrictive government policies, and many more. All the homilies-buy when the market dips, buy good companies, buy value, buy growth-have disappeared from analyst verbiage. Warren Buffett is forgotten.

Is this "gloom and doom" scenario for real? The recent performances of all portfolios seem to reinforce this outlook. Stock prices have been battered in recent weeks, reflecting this new perception of reality. Some of India’s largest companies have been battered by the recent fall-Reliance and Bharati Airtel are down 25% over the last two months, L&T is down 35%, ICICI Bank is down 40%, and SBI is down by a whopping 45%. Even mutual funds have not been spared, with most funds falling faster than the indices. Analysts have been revising Sensex targets to 12,500 or even as low as 10,500. What’s an investor to do? Run for cover, or brave the tide? Buying in this market would be a brave decision indeed. Or perhaps it would be foolish?

Let us try to make sense of the current worries. Are they as overwhelming as feared, or will they just be footnotes on the pages of history within a year or two? Most of the current worries are short-term in nature. Worries about a global slowdown have already started to weigh on commodity prices. And as infrastructure bottlenecks are resolved and additional supplies flow into the market, commodity prices look set to head downward. Most commodity stocks have already corrected sharply from their respective peaks.

Countries dependent on commodities have also seen a sharp drop in their markets over the last two months, due to worries about global growth rates. Brazil’s Bovespa is down 20% and Australia’s All Ordinaries down 15% in just two months. Any cooling off of commodity prices will put India back on the growth track.

This time around, India is likely to be one of the few markets offering growth opportunities as credit-induced growth seizes up in most other economies. The domestic growth potential and attractive valuations should put India back on the buy list over the next few months. But isn’t that a long time? The analysts are predicting the worst, and it could happen immediately, they say? What should you do?

Investors should forget about analysts’ commentary, projections and targets . Their accuracy leaves much to be desired. Don’t forget, these were the same fellows foretelling index targets of 20,000 to 25,000 just six months ago. There are worries galore, of course. But they only explain why the Sensex is at 13,000, and not at 23,000. They tell us very little about where the markets will be next year.

So what advice should investors follow? Don’t try to outguess the market. It has always been futile to try and guess market movements. And it’s impossible to pick the bottom or the top. Then, how does one invest? Or (a common question nowadays) should one invest at all? Equity remains the best asset for long-term capital growth. Despite current worries, returns from the stock market will be linked to long-term growth in corporate profits, which will in turn depend on the growth and prospects of the Indian economy. If you believe that India will do well over the long term, then the corporate sector will follow suit and so will the stock prices. Though indices have fallen by 40% from the peak, the long-term prospects of the Indian economy and the corporate sector are unlikely to have deteriorated to that extent. The demographic profile and infrastructure investment that analysts were raving about just six months ago are still in place. This decline thus gives long-term investors an excellent entry point.

Perhaps, like many investors, you are asking: should I buy now? If so, how much? Do not decide on the quantum of investments based on current market sentiment. Draw up an asset allocation that is appropriate for your age and risk profile. Decide your equity investments based on your asset allocation model, not on levels of the Sensex or targets bandied about by your friends or analysts. Don’t let optimistic targets based on mantras like "India Shining" tempt you into increasing your allocation to equity. Conversely, don’t let "India Sinking" fears scare you into opting out of your equity investments or allocation. Let your asset allocation decide your equity exposure, and stick with that allocation plan through bull and bear markets.

That’s the smart way to invest. It will help you filter out the "noise" on TV, and focus your investments on your long-term goals.

Chew this to eat less

You could crush that 3 p.m cookie craving just by chewing a little of this: gum. That’s right. A study found that chewing gum can really put the kibosh on your afternoon appetite in a big way.

Countering the Snack Attack
People who chew either sweetened or sugar-free gum after lunch feel full longer, have fewer hunger pangs, have fewer cravings for sweets, and eat fewer afternoon snacks — compared with people who don’t chew gum.

Tickled Tastebuds Signal “Full”
How does chomping gum suppress hunger? It’s simple. When you eat, your taste buds are stimulated by the food. But the cool thing is that exposure to the tastes and smells of food also lessens how good it tastes. That, in turn, is one of the cues that signal your brain that you’re full, so cravings go away. Chewing gum may have this same effect — but without all the calories! So skipping meals increases cravings for the wrong foods.

Mindful Consumption
You can make the gum trick work even better by thinking about how many snacks you’ve eaten. Then, try these other tips for better snack management: Grab a tall drink of water before every snack. So you will eat less.
Get support in your effort to eat smart. Friends will help you to eat the right foods.

The Eggsentials

Being an egg-lover, myself, I’d like to crack the subject...by giving you a few tried and tested tips... Before eating that egg, please check it for freshness (fresh ones sink in cool water) Drinking orange juice while eating an egg increases the body’s absorption of the yolk’s iron. Never wash an egg before storing it.

Having done that, here’s a quick introduction to the triple personality of an egg. An egg is actually three different foods — white, yolk and whole egg and each has its own distinct nutritional profile.

The proteins in the whole egg are considered “complete” with a rating of 100 given by the World Health Organisation, and also considered the most useful available for human beings. The much praised white, you’ll be happy to know is high in protein, low in fat, has virtually no cholesterol and only 13 per cent of the calories in an equal amount of egg yolk. It even has some amount of vitamin B2.

That brings us to the luscious golden eye — the egg yolk. Abused and despised for the huge amounts of cholesterol and fatty acids. But lets be fair and look at it’s goodies too — protein, phosphorous, calcium, iron, Vitamin D, B 1 and B 2. Together, the yolk and egg white make a high protein food.

The down-sides are plenty. Not particularly heart friendly, the egg is much maligned for it’s cholesterol content and rightly too. The yolk’s high cholesterol levels may make yours take off. Cholesterol is crucial for every cell in the body.
Eggs are also notorious for causing symptoms of food allergy, abdominal pain, nausea, vomitting, hives, angiodemia (swollen lips) and eczema. Raw eggs and egg-rich foods such as custards are excellent media for microorganisms, including those that cause food poisoning.

My solution?

First of all raw eggs should always be refrigerated. Egg-rich dishes should always be thoroughly cooked, stored in the refrigerator and served very hot or very cold. A healthy approach would be to include eggs in your eating plan, but use common sense to avoid getting too much cholesterol in your diet. After many a discussion with doctors and experts and nutritionists and my own experiences, here are some suggestions: Eat two egg whites with one egg yolk in your scrambled eggs. Replace half the eggs in recipes with egg substitutes or egg whites. Eat eggs no more than twice a week if you have elevated cholesterol in your blood. Use oils rich in vitamin E, such as safflower, sunflower, or olive oil, to prepare cooked eggs or omelettes.

The antioxidant effects of vitamin E will help reduce the risk for heart disease. Keep total fat intake down by selecting low fat alternatives such as skim milk, lean meats, and low-fat cheese. This is the most important dietary change you can make to bring your cholesterol down.

Dread talking to your kids about sex?

No matter how “cool” parents are with their kids, they dread the idea of discussing ‘sex’. If you too are in the same situation, then here’s something that offers help - parenting programmes at the workplace can significantly improve your ability to talk to kids about sexual health, suggests a new study.

Writing in the British Medical Journal, the research may provide a unique way of promoting healthy adolescent sexual behaviour. Research shows that parents can significantly influence adolescents’ sexual health and risk behaviour through parenting practices and talking about sex. For example, previous studies have found that adolescents whose parents talk to them about sex are more likely to delay intercourse, use contraception and have fewer partners.

But many parents and adolescents feel uncomfortable talking about sex because they are embarrassed or unsure of what to say or how to begin.

Researchers from Children’s Hospital at Boston, Harvard Medical School and the UCLA/RAND Center for Adolescent Health Promotion, report a randomised trial to assess if a parenting programme at the workplace, to help parents become more comfortable and skilled at communicating with adolescents about sexual health, has an effect on parents’ ability to communicate with their children.

569 parents of adolescents aged 11-16 years were randomised to attend the parenting programme. The programme consisted of 8 weekly one hour sessions at 13 workplaces in California. Parents and adolescents were sent follow-up surveys after 1 week, 3 months and 9 months. The authors found that the work-based approach had immediate significant and ongoing effects on parent-adolescent communication.

Parents attending the programme were more likely to discuss new sexual topics, had more conversations about topics they had previously discussed and were more open to communicate about sex. "We’d teach them some skills one week, and they’d come back the next week bubbling over with excitement that they’d talked with their teen about relationships, love, or sex...their teen had actually engaged in a real conversation with them, or role-played a topic like how to say no to unwanted sexual advances", the British Medical Journal quoted Mark Schuster, the study’s lead researcher, as saying.

The authors also note that before the programme few parents had taught their children how to use condoms, but one week after completion of the programme, 18 per cent of adolescents in the intervention group and 3 per cent in the control group said their parents had reviewed how to use a condom, this increased to 25 per cent vs 5 per cent after nine months.

Well-planned is half done

Waking up early in the morning, readying a wholesome breakfast, cooking and packing a delicious lunch, then getting ready to office, taking care of sundry household requirements — these are some of the daily chores of an average working woman .

And after all these and a hurried bath, if you rush to office, things are not easy on the work front either. Even the modern workplace comes with its own share of tensions.

The multiple-roles that women find themselves compelled to play these days, often bring about a major dip in energy level. If you are a person who does things in the last minute, then things may not be that easy.
A little bit of planning and time management may help a great deal to get rid of stress at home. The thumb rule is — do not put away things for the next day.

Judicious use of weekends or holidays is important in a working woman’s life. Not only must you plan for the next day, but also plan for the week ahead.

Do the laundry and iron the clothes. If you can decide clothes for each day of the ensuing week and keep the accessories along with it ready, you have half won your battle. Otherwise choosing a dress and finding the accessories will take away a major chunk of your precious time in the mornings.

Similarly, encourage your husband to arrange his wardrobe for a week. If you have school-going children, it is important that you keep not only their uniforms and shoes ready, but also their casual clothes for after-school hours.

Buy vegetables for a week, sort and keep them in the refrigerator. Keeping onions and garlic peeled and chopped will surely save time. Grinding ginger-garlic paste and keeping it in the fridge is also good. Storing boiled potatoes is always helpful. If you are in the habit of using only home made spices or mixes, grinding and keeping them in air-tight containers will save time.

For a south Indian household no breakfast is complete without idli or dosa. Grind the batter in advance and refrigerate. It will come to your rescue, if you are late from office in the evenings or you have some unexpected visitors or guests.

Fixing a varying menu on a daily basis will be interesting for the family members too. But plan it ahead. For example, if you are making idli or pongal, keep sambhar so that you need not have to make another side dish.
Dedicate at least one day in a week for mixed rice varieties. Vegetable rice, biryani, lemon rice, tomato rice, tamarind rice, sambhar rice and curd rice, you have any number of options to try out. So at least for one day you will be saved from cooking a full-meal.

Try to finish off your beauty treatments on holidays. From shampooing hair to doing a pedicure, manicure or facial, doing it on a holiday in a relaxed manner will refresh you. If all is set, then you will be able to handle working days
just like that.