Is the pull-back rally over?

Constraining economic factors and fall of equities from all-time highs of 21,200 to recent lows of 12,514 leaves us in no doubt that we are in the midst of a bear market. The recent rally in the market is being seen as a typical bull-run in the bear market. In just five days, the Sensex has rallied 2,366 points after which profit booking set in.

So is the short-term rally over? Economictimes.com spoke to marketmen to find out.

Chief Technical Analyst, Sandeep Waghle of Angel Stock Broking:

“Today’s (July 29) correction was event based which got discounted. It can’t be said that the rally is over. Buying can still emerge at these levels, the trend is still bullish. Top has been formed for some time at 15,200. The bottom of 12,500, which was formed some two weeks backs, will not be violated. We may see buying at 13,200-13,300 levels.”

Manas Jaiswal, Senior Technical analyst, Emkay Global Financial Services

“Nifty has already corrected 50 per cent of its recent rally from 3,790 to 4,539. If it remains below 50 per cent retracement level of 4,164, it can touch the recent low of 3,790. At a higher level, if it trades above 4,220 then the uptrend will continue and it can again come in the range of 4,350-4,400. Wednesday would be a critical day as it will decide the market trend.”

Arun Mewawalla, AVP-Alternative Research, ULJK Securities

“The recent short-term rally is over, as it was based on short-covering. We expect the market to be in consolidation phase between 4,000 and 4,500. Until July series expiry settlement, we could see volatility in the range of 4,100-4,250.”

Ram Chandran Iyer, head of institutional sales, at Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities

“The entire pull-back rally from 12,600 to 15,100 was event based, as traders covered shorts on expectations of UPA winning the vote of confidence in parliament. Soon after the survival of the government, selling emerged at 15,000 levels. Despite the fact that crude is around $123-125 per barrel, inflation is at an acceptable two-digit mark and earnings of most companies were not bad. However, investor confidence is missing. Unless foreign funds cease selling and there is renewed buying interest from domestic institutions, every rally will be sold off. Liquidity will be the main driving force for the market. We expect the market to consolidate near term. 12,600 will be a good buying opportunity to enter quality stocks with a two-three year perspective.”

Get ready to pay more for bank loans

Commercial, home, personal and car loans are sure to cost more with the Reserve Bank, under pressure to fight high inflation, announcing stringent steps including raising mandatory cash reserves of banks to suck up over Rs 8,000 crore.

Aimed at bringing down inflation from the present around 12 per cent to 7 per cent by March 2009, the central bank increased the Cash Reserve Ratio for the fourth time and raised short term lending rate to banks third time this fiscal.

In the quarterly monetary policy review, RBI increased CRR by 0.25 per cent to 9 per cent and short term lending rate to banks or repo rate by 0.50 per cent to 9 per cent.

Lowering the growth projections for the economy to 8 per cent from the earlier 8-8.5 per cent, it targeted to bring down the rate of price rise to 7 per cent by March, making a clear case for prioritising inflation management over the GDP. Earlier, RBI had set a goal of limiting inflation to 5-5.5 per cent.

The new policy, which is sure to disappoint the industry that urged the RBI not to take steps that would make cost of credit higher, said that "the liquidity management will continue to receive priority in policy objectives."

Banking sources said that the RBI with its tight policy, being pursued since April this year, would have sucked up about Rs 50,000 crore of liquidity and there appears no let up in its hawkish stand during the rest of the year as it has forecast that hardening global crude prices would continue to exert pressure on the economy.

Besides the pressures from global commodity markets, the economy may also have to bear the burden of higher subsidies, loan waivers and increased salaries of government employees once the Sixth Pay Commission recommendations are implemented.

RBI ups lending rate, cash ratio aggressively

The Reserve Bank of India raised its key lending rate by half a percentage point on Tuesday to its highest in seven years and combined it with a reserve hike in an unexpectedly aggressive bid to quash double-digit inflation.

The RBI raised the short-term repo rate as expected, but the size of the move, which brought the benchmark to 9.0 percent, surprised markets.

Most economists polled by Reuters had forecast a smaller step after last month’s two increases totalling 75 basis points.

The RBI also raised the cash reserve ratio, the amount of funds banks must keep on deposit with it, by 25 basis points to 9.0 percent to absorb surplus cash in the banking system. The increase will take effect on Aug. 30.

"Bringing down inflation from the current high levels and stabilising inflation expectations assumes the highest priority in the stance of monetary policy," the central bank said in its quarterly review.

Analysts, most of whom had expected the reserve ratio to stay unchanged, saw the double-punch as a sign the central bank was ready to accept slower growth as a price for dragging inflation down from its heady levels.

GROWTH ON BACKBURNER

"These are big strides taken to cool down the economy by reducing demand pressures," said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank.

"Given the recent spate of tightening, the central bank has more or less aligned itself to the curve and it clearly highlights the central bank has moved to an inflation fighting mode and growth is now on the backburner."

India’s inflation, as measured by wholesale prices, stood at almost 12 percent in mid-July and has more than doubled since late February, reaching its highest level since 1995.

It accelerated into double digits after a sharp increase in government-set retail fuel prices in June, prompting the central bank to resume interest rate increases after a pause of more than a year.

Indian federal bonds yields rose sharply and the rupee strengthened after the news of the interest rate and reserve ratio rise.

The risk of slowing growth is rising up the agenda of the world’s central banks, diverting policy makers away from a battle to prevent food and fuel costs from spilling into wages and other prices. Expectations of rate rises this year have faded across much of the industrialised world including the United States and Japan.

In China, which like India raised subsidised fuel prices last month, financial markets scaled back expectations for the pace of yuan appreciation and interest rate increases after the ruling Communist Party and the central bank flagged a policy shift.

But India’s central bank has been criticised in the past for not acting quickly enough to counter mounting price pressures.

Analysts said Tuesday’s move would buy it some time to assess the results of its recent steps. They were divided, however, on whether and when the central bank would tighten policy again.

The central bank left the reverse repo rate at which it absorbs excess cash from banks and the bank rate, used by banks to price long-term loans, steady. Both remain at 6.0 percent.

Keep your heart young. Exercise!

Here’s yet another reason why you should exercise: It makes your heart stay young, says a new research on adults. The study conducted at Washington University School of Medicine in St Louis, showed that older people who did endurance exercise training for about a year ended up with metabolically much younger hearts.

Women benefit more

The researchers also showed that by one metabolic measure, women benefited more than men from the training. “Past research has suggested that exercise can reverse some effects of aging, and we wanted to see what effect it would have specifically on the heart,” said first author Pablo F Soto, MD, instructor in medicine in the Cardiovascular Division. The participants in the study were men and women who were not obese but who had been living an inactive lifestyle. They were put on an eleven-month program of endurance exercise under the guidance of a trainer.

The secret’s exercise

To reach the conclusions, the research team measured heart metabolism in sedentary older people both at rest and during administration of dobutamine, a drug that makes the heart race as if a person were exercising vigorously.

For the first three months, the participants were required to exercise to about 65 per cent of their maximum capacity. After that, the program was stepped up so they reached about 75 per cent of maximum. At the start, they found that in response to the increased energy demands produced by dobutamine, the hearts of the study subjects didn’t increase their uptake of energy in the form of glucose (blood sugar).

But after endurance exercise training – which involved walking, running or cycling exercises three to five days a week for about an hour per session – the participants’ hearts doubled their glucose uptake during high-energy demand, just as younger hearts do.

Young at heart!

Soto explains that if heart muscle doesn’t take in glucose in response to increased energy needs, it goes into an energy-deprived state, which may raise the risk of heart attack. But if it can increase glucose uptake, the heart is better protected against ischemia (low oxygen) and heart attack.

Based on heart glucose metabolism, both the men and women in the study had the same rejuvenating benefit from their exercise programs. But the heart uses both glucose and fatty acids for energy. And when the researchers looked at fatty acid metabolism, they found a striking difference in the results of exercise training between women and men.

In the men, the heart’s fatty acid metabolism dropped in response to increased energy demand, but it went up in women. The study has been published in the American Journal of Physiology.

Family time linked to teens' sex life

Parents who don’t want their teens to engage in risky sexual behavior should make family time a priority, a new study suggests. Adolescents who took part in family activities more often had sex less frequently, less unprotected sex, and fewer sex partners, Dr. Rebekah Levine Coley of Boston College and her colleagues found.

Most research on parenting and teen sexual behavior has simply looked at whether or not a teen has had sex, not the degree of sexual risk he or she takes, Coley noted in an interview with Reuters Health . But given that two out of three U.S. teens have sex before they turn 19, more specific information would provide a better understanding of the risks involved, Coley and her team point out in the Journal of Adolescent Health .

To investigate, as well as to better define whether parental qualities influence a child’s sexual behavior rather than vice versa, Coley and her team used increasingly stringent statistical techniques to analyze the results of a survey of 4,950 U.S. teens, 1,058 of whom were siblings. The adolescents were 12 to 16 years old when the study began, and completed the survey every year for 3 years.

By comparing parenting quality and sexual behavior for siblings raised in the same household, Coley noted, it is possible to tease out potential cause-and-effect relationships.

The more times a week that an adolescent reported having dinner with their family, "doing something religious" as a family, or having fun with their family, the less likely he or she was to engage in risky sexual behavior, the researchers found.

However, having a parent who used "negative and psychologically controlling" behavior increased the likelihood that a teen would be having risky sex. This includes "criticizing the ideas of the adolescents, controlling and directing what they think and how they feel," Coley explained.

"Negative and psychologically controlling parenting behaviors may inhibit adolescents’ development of self-efficacy and identity, interfere with mature and responsible decision making skills, and affect the development of healthy relationships, in turn leading to an elevated likelihood of engaging in risky behaviors," the researchers suggest.

On the other hand, they add, family activities are "centrally important supports for children, providing opportunities for emotional warmth, communication, and transmission of values and beliefs."

The findings make it clear, Coley said, that "what parents do with their adolescents really matters."

Thank God it's Friday?

All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy’ - is a saying we are all familiar with. And if you can instantly relate to Jack you know you have been working too hard and need to take a break.

A break? Are you kidding? Ask those working in a 24x7 setup – which is practically everywhere – and all you’ll get in response is a look of disbelief. Alarmingly, the fastest rising economy in the world doesn’t have time to sit back and relax. Unrealistic targets, enhanced matrices and tempting incentives coupled with never-ending quest for perfection is pushing us into working round-the-clock – with no time for leisure.

Agrees Soumi Dutta, senior manager for media operations: “The duration of a weekend has declined from two complete days to just one or maybe half a day now, which usually starts as late as Saturday night and doesn’t even continue till Sunday evening because your phone keeps ringing due to some or the other office urgency.”

Snehal Sharma, production assistant with a private firm, adds, “A holiday (people may define it variably) is a break from the regularities; so in that conventional sense, there is nothing like a weekend or ’leave’. Though thanks to the MNC’s & BPO’s, a large chunk of junta work for five days a week but that doesn’t actually mean there is a weekend, or rather work’end’.”

Further adding, he says, “Before the TGIF feeling can sink in, there is a fleeting sensation of the arriving Monday blues. The work, the environment and the week, which in most of the cases is an ordeal, is too prominent in the minds of people to let go for these two days.”

Occasional official urgencies are accepted and understood by all. However, the problem occurs when working beyond regular hours becomes an everyday affair. With time, stress starts taking a toll on your health, productivity falls, and your grey cells run the risk of being short-circuited! In such situations, you seriously can’t underestimate the importance of weekends. In the west especially, no wonder weekends are considered sacrosanct.

Manika Datta, principal consultant with a private firm, who stayed and studied in Australia, shares, “The way of living and working in Australia is very systemised and organised; therefore, people do spend quality time with family and friends. The weekend mood starts from Friday afternoon and even the shops shut earlier than usual on that day. People there are living happy and contended lives without the luxury of having housemaids, cooks, cleaners, drivers etc.”

Udita Dhanda, presently residing in Dubai, agrees “Weekends here are meant to be Fridays and Saturdays and as soon as the weekend arrives, people switch off their mobiles, Blackberry’s, laptops and do not work unless absolutely necessary.”

Relates Garima Misra, senior associate in a PR consultancy: “Despite today’s youth being quite clear about their working hours, they end up stretching everyday and even on weekends. Regardless of how much we love (or hate) our work or how much the 24x7 work culture has sink into us Indians, everyone does need some ‘me time’.”

Talking of work efficiency, experts believe that a human body needs the right amount of sleep, proper meal intake and the right kind of mind rejuvenation. Dr. Sanjay Chugh explains, “Just like machines, human beings have a certain capacity. If we try and push ourselves beyond this, we might be able to continue working but soon there will be problems such as stress, anxiety, skin problems, reduced energy levels, lowered stamina, reduced sex drive, smoking, alcohol dependence...the list is endless. Hence, it is imperative that we give the right kind of rest and maintenance to our system and strike a balance between work and personal life.”

Says Priya Talwar, currently pursuing MBA in UK: “Its not that people abroad are achieving the impossible. They work hard from Monday through Friday, Monday and Tuesday being the days with maximum work, but work timings in most sectors are fixed and then one can relax and rejuvenate over the weekend.”

Manika adds, “There is definitely no laidback attitude when it comes to work - no procrastination at work. Everybody takes pleasure and recreational activities as seriously as they take their work. There is a clear demarcation vis-a-vis time, for both things.”

Just like there is a time for everything in life, there is a time for leisure and recreation. Recreational activities provide that much-needed balance and positive energy to our lives without which we would burn out in no time.

Ratan Tata to play an active role after retirement

Ratan Tata may continue to hold a non-executive post on the board of the Tata group following his official retirement in 2012.

Answering shareholders at the 63rd annual general meeting of Tata Motors, Mr Tata said he will continue to play an active role to guide the group’s operations. Mr Tata is now chairman of Tata Motors and has been closely associated with Tata Motors, be it the Indica project or the ultra low cost car, the Nano. He is also keen to get the two iconic brands, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), back on track.

Mr Tata refused to comment on an issue raised by some shareholders that his counterparts in other major groups, such as BK Birla of the Aditya Birla group and Keshub Mahindra of the Mahindra group, continue to hold the top posts even in their 80’s. “I don’t have to be on the board to be active,” said Mr Tata at the AGM.

Until 2005, non-executive directors of the group retired at the age of 70. Under the revised guidelines, the retirement age for executive and whole-time directors is 65, while the retirement age for non-executive directors is 75. This revision in the age has helped some of the directors in the group like JJ Irani, RK Krishna Kumar and NA Soonawala to stay on and give direction and value to the Tata group companies.

The succession issues have also been to put to rest till 2012 unless Mr Tata decides to retire at an earlier date, sources said. Mr Tata, who is now 71-year-old, is in the process of finding a successor and is open to looking for candidates outside the Tata group too. “I am committed to finding a successor before I retire,” Mr Tata said.

Mr Tata has been chairman of group holding company Tata Sons since 1991. He is also the chairman of other major Tata companies including Tata Steel, TCS, Tata Power, Tata Tea, Tata Chemicals, Indian Hotels, Tata Teleservices and Tata AutoComp.

During his tenure, the group’s revenues have grown over nine-fold to annualised group revenues of over $55 billion. Mr Tata joined the Tata group in December 1962. In 1981, he was named chairman of Tata Industries where he was responsible for transforming it into a group strategy think-tank.

Obese workers not lazy

Obese workers are not lazier, emotionally unstable and harder to get along with than their thinner colleagues, says a new study that demolishes some of the stereotypes about such people.Overweight and obese adults were not found to be significantly less conscientious, less agreeable, less extraverted or less emotionally stable.

Mark Roehling, associate professor in Michigan State University, and two of his colleagues based the study on the relationship between body weight and personality traits of 3,500 adults.

"Previous research has demonstrated that many employers hold negative stereotypes about obese workers, and those beliefs contribute to discrimination against overweight workers at virtually. . . from hiring to promotion to firing," Roehling said.

"This study goes a step further by examining whether there is empirical support for these commonly held negative stereotypes. Are they based on fact or fiction? Our results suggest that the answer is fiction."

The findings are based on two separate but convergent national studies. Roehling, who’s also a lawyer, said the practical implication of the research is that employers should take steps to prevent managers from using weight as a predicator of personality traits when it comes to hiring, promoting or firing.

"Employers concerned about the fair and effective management of their work force," Roehling said, "should be proactive in preventing negative stereotypes about overweight workers from influencing employment decisions.

Can't find a job? Groom your looks!

Forget polishing resume to find a suitable job, for your looks are more than enough to do the trick, suggests a new study, which has found that a majority of jobseekers are not hired because of their "bad dress sense" and "poor appearance".

Experts have called for style makeovers to get the long-term unemployed into work.

The Scottish Centre for Employment Research believes that image problems are a very real barrier to interview success.

Their conclusions are based on a survey of 500 high-street retailers in which they found that the vast majority had not hired staff because of the way they looked.

They also found that more than four-fifths of employers had an appearance policy, with set standards on personal hygiene, tidiness and dress.

The majority of firms also frowned upon visible tattoos, piercings and excessive make-up and jewellery. "Our findings show that you could have the right qualifications and yet fail to be employed because you don’’t look ’’right’’,” the Scotsman quoted Professor Chris Warhurst of Strathclyde University, eth study’s lead researcher, as saying.

"Retail jobs are being targeted by Government as appropriate work for the long-term unemployed so it is essential that this group are not excluded from the labour market because they lack the appropriate presentation skills."

"Many potential employees might ask why they can’’t have streaks in their hair, a tattoo or a body piercing, things which are a personal expression. But many employers won’’t accept that and the likelihood is they won’’t be able to express themselves in that way in the workplace,” he added.

The research showed that for most employers the appearance of potential employers was considered more important than their knowledge of the products they sold.

Soon, vaccine against bio weapons

Experts at the Society for General Microbiology have made a significant advance towards making a vaccine against an organism that may be used to produce biological weapons.

Writing about their achievement in the Journal of Medical Microbiology, the researchers have revealed that they have made a rapid progress in understanding how the pathogen Francisella tularensis causes disease.

"Only very few bacteria are needed to cause serious disease," said Prof Petra Oyston from Dstl, Porton Down.

"Because of this and the fact that tularemia can be contracted by inhalation, Francisella tularensis has been designated a potential biological weapon. Since the events of September 2001 and the subsequent anthrax attacks on the USA, concern about the potential misuse of dangerous pathogens including F. tularensis has increased. As a result, more funding has been made available for research on these organisms and has accelerated progress on developing medical countermeasures," the researchers added.

Tularemia circulates in rodents and animals like rabbits and hares, and outbreaks in humans often happen at the same time as outbreaks in these animals.

The disease is probably transmitted by insects like mosquitoes, ticks, and deer flies.

People can also become infected by contact with contaminated food or water and by breathing in particles containing the bacteria.

Farmers, hunters, walkers and forest workers are most at risk of contracting tularemia.

The researchers say that research into F. tularensis’s pathogenesis attains significance in view of the fact that various nations have developed it as a biological weapon, and also because some are said to have produced antibiotic-resistant strains.

"Progress is being made. Since the genome of F. tularensis was sequenced, researchers have taken great strides in understanding the molecular basis for its pathogenesis. This is essential information for developing a vaccine and getting it licensed," said Prof. Oyston.

The researchers, however, concede that they are still unsure about the function of most F. tularensis genes.

"Recently genes needed by F. tularensis for growth and survival have been identified. These could be targets for novel antimicrobial development or could be used in the production of a vaccine," said Prof. Oyston.

"Although we are getting closer to addressing key issues such as the need for an effective vaccine, it appears we are still some way from understanding the pathogenesis of F. tularensis. More research is needed in this area," Prof. Oyston added.

'Indian food market set to double by 2025'

The Indian food market is set to more than double by 2025 on the back of growing economy and changing lifestyles of people, says a US report.Citing a study by McKinsey&Co, a report by the US Department of Agriculture says: "The market size for the food consumption category in India is expected to grow from $155 billion in 2005 to $344 billion in 2025 at a compound annual growth rate of 4.1%."

The market holds enormous potential for snackfood. The urban India consumes commercial savoury snacks 10 times more than its rural counterpart, with people in the western parts topping the chart of snack lovers followed by the northern region, the report said. Around 1,000 snack items and 300 types of savouries are sold in India.

Potato chips and potato-based products are the largest product category with over 85% share of the salty snack market, it pointed out. Pepsi and Haldiram’s are some of the major players in the organised potato chips market.

India’s snacks market is estimated to be worth $3 billion, with the organised segment accounting for half the market share and growing at a rate of 15-20% a year. The unorganised snack food market is worth $1.56 billion and is growing at 7-8%, the report said.
"Consumers are willing to pay a premium for both value-added private and branded products, creating immense opportunities for manufacturers and retailers, it said, adding "there is a widespread recognition in India that consumers are likely to replace light meals with snacks".

Anil may join 'One Laptop Per Child' project

Is Anil Ambani planning to tie up with the legendary Nicholas Negroponte, founder of ’One Laptop Per Child’ (OLPC), to make laptop ownership a reality for millions of underprivileged children in India for meeting their education needs?

Negroponte, along with OLPC India head Satish Jha, are likely to meet the ADAG chairman next week to discuss how OLPC can work together with the Indian corporate giant on extending the coverage of OLPC’s work to more states within this country.

While the specifics of the likely arrangement are unclear at this stage, OLPC is banking on ADAG’s interests in the communications (through Reliance Communications) and IT (through Tech Reliance) segments to work out a partnership that draws on the strengths of both parties. Informal discussions have already been held between OLPC and ADAG in the past.

Currently, OLPC - whose mission is to make its ’XO laptop’ (a children’s machine) widely available to disadvantaged kids in underdeveloped countries - runs a pilot project at Khairat village in Maharashtra where 500 children in the 6-12 age bracket have been provided laptops for individual learning.

"We hope to be in most, if not all, Indian states in the course of time," Jha told TOI on Sunday.

OLPC, incidentally, has plans to create an organisational structure in India to support its initiatives. OLPC officials Matt Keller and Manusheel Gupta recently even met Bengal IT minister Debesh Das to examine ways in which OLPC could roll out its programs in the state.

"We recognise that school education is a state subject and those who need most help are part of that system. We will be glad if the government plans to use XO in its school systems. India’s corporate sector can also make a huge difference to bridge this divide and we will appeal to them as well. We have made some progress on each front. However, given the sheer scale of what needs to be done, we have a long way to go," Jha said.

OLPC was founded by Negroponte with a core of Media Lab veterans, but quickly expanded to include a wide range of exceptionally talented and dedicated people from academia, industry, the arts, business, and the open-source community.

Seduce your girl with humour

When it comes to seducing a woman, nothing, as it turns out, works better than a man with a self-depreciating sense of humour. What’s more is that this finding is based on a two-year scientific research which found that men who can poke fun at themselves are most the ones that are sexual magnets for women.

As a part of the study lead author Gil Greengross, of the University of New Mexico in the US and her colleagues asked female students to listen to tape recordings of men talking about themselves.

The women were then asked to score the men on sexual attractiveness.

Greengross revealed that when it comes to the type of humour that works best at getting a woman into bed, the self-deprecating kind comes in at the top of the pack.

"Many studies show that a sense of humour is sexually attractive to women but we’ve found that self-deprecating humour is the most attractive of all," the Telegraph quoted Greengross, as saying.

"People who used this humour were considered to be far more desirable as mates."

He added a note of caution however, saying that it can also draw attention to a man’s real faults, thus turning women off.

"It is a risky form of humour because it can draw attention to one’s real faults, thereby diminishing the self-deprecator’s status in the eyes of others," he said.

"Think about the secondary school child whom nobody liked, who makes fun of his shortcomings.

"His peers mocked him and he was considered more pathetic than he was previously. This is high-risk seduction. It is not for everyone."

The study, ’Dissing Oneself: The Sexual Attractiveness of Self-Deprecating Humour,’ will be published in Journal of Evolutionary Psycholog