The RBI has set a target of 20% growth in Non-food Creditfor FY2009E, decidedly more hawkish than the 24-25%target that had been set for FY2008. Tight Monetary Policy has already ucceeded in progressively bringing down yoy growth in Credit to 22% during FY2008.It is yoy growth in Money Supply that has remained obstinately above RBI's comfort level, primarily due to the continued surge in Capital Inflows in one form or the other(presently, coming in the form of unprecedented FDI and PE Inflows). The RBI has set a target of 16.5%-17.0% growth in Money Supply (M3), about 50bp lower than the target set for FY2008, but still much lower than the current yoy growth rate of 21%. The RBI does however, expect 8.0-8.5% growth in GDP in FY2009
Key Economic Indicators FY2007A FY2008A FY2009E
GDP Growth 9.6% 8.7% 8.0-8.5%
Inflation 5.9% 7.4% 5.5%
Money Supply (M3) 23.7% 20.7% 16.5-17.0%
Deposits 23.8% 22.2% 17.0%
Non-food Credit 28.5% 22.3% 20.0%
Exhibit 1: Macro-economic Targets for FY2009E
Source: RBI's FY2008-09 Annual Monetary Policy
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