Why Crude Oil market is exposed to speculation

Speculation in association with an increasingly weakening dollar and supported by some fundamental risks such as fear of supply disruptions from unstable resource centers has fuelled the price spikes.

As long as the US interest rates will remain low, commodity markets in general, and crude oil in particular, will remain exposed to large speculative swings. Speculators purchase futures with borrowed money at low interest rates.

The speculative demand pushes the spot prices upwards, which, in turn, fosters even higher expectations of future price increases, which generates even more speculative demand and so on in a self-fuelling upwards spiral up to the trend reversal when speculation is no more profitable. And in case a trend reversal ensues, speculation could create an amplifying effect on the downside.

In the shorter term where demand is very insensitive to price, sharp price increases, whether caused by the OPEC’s decisions or by the trader’s expectations, are not dampened by parallel reductions in demand volumes.

Also the supply side of the market is very inelastic in the short-to-medium term, large speculative price increases cannot be cut short by flooding the market with additional supply. In a situation like this, a price speculation can continue to growing without resulting in surplus inventory, simply because traders can keep selling the same inventories to each other at ever high prices.

The likely trigger for crude oil price crash could be a slowdown in emerging markets (perhaps caused by the high oil price itself), which would obviously cut down demand for goods and services in general and crude oil in particular.

While the economic growth will accelerate for oil exporting countries, the high crude prices will impact the growth figures of fast moving economies. Inflation is rising in India and China due to increase in the costs of food imports, the current account deficits, though comfortable at current levels (China’s surplus of 11% and India’s deficit of 1%) will also be rising if the prices were sustaining at current levels.

On the other hand the ongoing slowdown in the US economy, the subprime impact and credit crunch, will negatively impact the US oil demand which accounts for nearly 21 percent of the global demand for crude oil. And even if China ’s GDP continues to grow around 10-11 per cent in the next two more years, the resultant increase in oil demand will not be sufficient to offset the decline in demand from the US economy.

It may be mentioned that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has already cut its economic growth outlook through next year. It now forecasts several quarters of weak growth for most of its 30 members, which include the U.S., Japan, and several European countries.

Among the industrialized economies, the U.S. economy is projected to grow just 1.2 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009. The euro zone is likely to grow at 1.7 percent in 2008 and 1.4 percent in 2009. Japan is expected to expand at 1.7 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2009. Also the IMF’s world economic outlook is not encouraging, they have already reduced the world GDP growth from 4.9% in 2007 to 3.7% in 2008.

According to the IMF estimates a permanent $ 5 a barrel increase in oil prices will decrease global GDP by up to 0.3 percentage points. This means that a $ 35 (approx.) increase in the oil prices since January 1, 2008, will cut the world GDP by 2.1% this year. The relationship between oil prices and output has also been studied by Bernanke, Jones, and Lee . These authors found significant recessionary and inflationary impact for oil prices on real GDP and consumer prices.

In a nutshell we can conclude that moderation in global economic growth could create a trend reversal in the crude oil prices, where there is possibility that speculation could create an amplifying effect on the down side. This is likely to pull crude prices back to US $ 85 – 90 range (per barrel) from where they had started recent up swing in January 2008.

Dr. S P Sharma is a Senior Research Analyst with IL&FS Investsmart Commodities Limited