Govt faces tight confidence vote

India’s parliament begins debate on a vote of confidence in the Congress-led government on Monday after its communist allies ended their crucial support in protest at a civilian nuclear deal with the United States.

The vote, due on Tuesday, is so close that several MPs who are ill may be flown or wheeled in from hospital, and others have been granted temporary release from jail.

If Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government falls, there will be early elections, possibly by year-end. This would almost certainly lead to the cancellation of the nuclear deal and halt all economic reforms, from insurance and banking to pensions.

The vote essentially pits the Congress Party-led government against the communists and a coalition led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

A host of smaller regional and caste-based parties hold the balance. It is unclear which way they will vote and a spate of horse trading in recent days even included the re-naming of an airport to honour the father of one wavering MP.

A government defeat would be a boost for the BJP, which has won a string of state elections this year amid rising inflation and criticism that millions of poor Indians were not benefiting from the booming economy.

The prime minister will kick off the confidence motion with an opening statement, followed by a parliamentary debate and a final electronic vote, expected on Tuesday evening.

While numbers are in flux, some analysts say the government is about 10 votes short of a 272 majority in the 543-member house.

"Nobody is sure, it’s too difficult to predict," said Sudha Pai, professor of politics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University. "It’s perhaps the tightest parliamentary vote we have seen."

In 1999, a BJP-led government lost a confidence vote by a margin of just one.

SHADY DEALS

Weak party discipline, under-the-table deals and accidents like MPs falling ill make the result almost impossible to predict.

"The problem is that money changes hands, dirty deals are struck and MPs do a volte-face nonchalantly," said political commentator Amulya Ganguli. "It’s hard to predict when the race is so tight."

A week ago the government was confident of securing a majority with the support of the regional Samajwadi Party (SP), which replaced the communists as its parliamentary support after the left walked out, saying the nuclear pact was bad for India.

Since then there have been signs of a rebellion in the ranks of the SP, including the defection to an opposition group of senior party member Shahid Siddiqui.

Two small political groups -- the JD(S) and RLD with six MPs in all -- also decided to vote against the government.

Other MPs have vacillated over voting for a government already battling rising inflation, which is hitting millions of poor voters, ahead of general elections due by next May.

Analysts say the government is hoping for some abstentions in the opposition camp, and the government says it is confident of winning the vote. "We have the numbers. Our flock is together," said Congress spokesman Veerappa Moily.